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Mug punters vs Knowledgeable punters

Discuss your ideas, systems and general thoughts on Thoroughbred Racing and Punting

Mug punters vs Knowledgeable punters

Postby mrracebase » Wed Sep 30, 2009 8:27 pm

What would your expected profit be if you randomly chose one horse per race and put $1 to win on each on the tote ? So, for this you would be using no skill whatsoever. Consider also that the 'average' punter gets back roughly 84% of all money spent on win betting.
Answer : you would lose 21% on turnover with blindfolded punting (based on statistics I worked out).
Hello ? How can this be because the average loss is only 16% on turnover ? What's the story ?
It's the skilled punters that provide the shortfall. A mug punter loses 21% on turnover, an average punter loses 16% on turnover, a skilled punter loses less than 16%, and the experts lose far less than 16%. :!:
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