RaceBase

The NZ Herald this morning said the following, when commenting on the barrier draw of Zarzuela and others in The Derby this coming saturday :

The 2400m might be an extreme distance for 3-year-olds, but barrier draws are important in any major race, regardless of the distance.

The slight consolation is that the two main dangers, Corporal Jones and Katie Lee, have drawn gates No 11 and No 10.

Unless they get extremely favourable luck, it won't be easy for any of the trio.

There was a dramatic TAB reaction to the barrier draw. When the agency opened it's final field betting yesterday it eased Zarzuela out from the hot $2.20 price to $2.80, a massive percentage increase.

There are two things that I would query. Firstly, why are barrier draws more important in a major race compared to any other. Surely, a barrier draw is a barrier draw, regardless of whether it's a Derby or a midweek maiden, and the same dynamics of the draw come into play on both occasions. Secondly, I would question whether the influence of the draw is overrated in the first place. Statistics tend to back this up. Over the last 15 years, there have been 214 races at Ellerslie in Good to Dead conditions, over distances greater or equal to 2000 metres, with at least 14 starters in the race. There doesn't appear to be any statistical pattern suggesting inner draws have a huge advantage.

Ellerslie, >= 2000 metres, Fast-Dead, at least 14 runners in race
Barrier : Number of wins
1 : 15
2 : 19
3 : 13
4 : 10
5 : 9
6 : 21
7 : 9
8 : 13
9 : 20
10 : 17
11 : 11
12 : 14
13 : 10
14 : 15
15 : 10

Barrier 16 has 5 wins, but from only 63 races.
The most popular barriers in terms of strike rate are as follows : 18,6,9,2,10,16,1,14,12,15,8,3,11,4,13,5,7,17

Hardly statistics to justify lengthening Zarzuela's price from $2.20 to $2.80, I would have thought.